Norway Probes Polymarket Over Suspicious Nobel Prize Bets

Norwegian officials are investigating possible information leaks after unusual betting activity on prediction platform Polymarket correctly foresaw the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner.

Nobel Institute spokesperson Erik Aasheim confirmed to The Strait News that an inquiry is underway following reports from Aftenposten and Finansavisen.

Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado won this year’s prize for her fight for democracy against President Nicolás Maduro. But just hours before the official announcement, at least three Polymarket accounts placed large bets on her victory earning around $90,000 in profits and triggering insider-trading concerns.

One trader, identified only as “6741,” allegedly created a new account to place targeted bets, netting over $53,000, according to Protos.

Observers say Machado’s odds began spiking Thursday night, just before the Nobel Committee which had finalized its decision by Oct. 6 made its public announcement.

This isn’t Polymarket’s first controversy. The platform, recently backed by a $2 billion deal with ICE, has faced scrutiny over potential leaks ahead of major events as it prepares to re-enter the U.S. market under CFTC oversight.

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