Veteran trader Peter Brandt is still standing by his long-standing forecast that Bitcoin’s price may eventually fall to zero. The chartist continues to think that there is a 50% possibility that such a disastrous event will occur. The largest cryptocurrency has an equal probability of rising to $100,000 or even $250,000, according to Brandt, who notes that it has a “asymmetrical reward-to-risk trade.”
After the cryptocurrency witnessed a severe pandemic-related drop in March 2020, the trader speculated that zero might be Bitcoin’s ultimate bottom. But just a few months later, Bitcoin began another bull run, initially reaching $69,000.
Is a Bitcoin crash ever possible? Even though the biggest cryptocurrency has been there for a while, there are always those who believe it will eventually vanish from existence. Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett’s right-hand man, recently stated that Bitcoin was “extremely likely” to reach zero and that it was also “stupid” and “evil.”
Although it is extremely unlikely, Bitcoin might theoretically lose all of its value. In 2018, researchers at Yale University calculated that there was a 0.4% chance that the biggest cryptocurrency will crash to zero in a single day as a result of an extraordinary black swan occurrence.
Brandt recently asserted that the $8,000 level might turn out to be the bottom of the latest price fall, which is related to more practical bearish objectives.
On-chain analytics firm Santiment reports that 34,723 BTC moved off exchanges Sept. 30, marking the highest in more than three months and the fourth largest Bitcoin move in 2022.
This remains a potentially bullish indicator for the lead crypto asset, as Santiment indicates it may point to trader confidence heading into Q4. It notes that the last time such a large quantity of BTC left exchanges was June 17, after which prices increased by almost 22% in the weeks that followed.
BTC is currently trading down marginally at $19,192. Following the lackluster price performance in September, sentiment among traders remains low, which might be another potentially bullish indicator.
Will Clemente, a crypto analyst, highlights a historical positive Q4 for Bitcoin, “Historically Q4 has been Bitcoin’s best performance by far, with an average quarterly return of +103.9%. October and November have been its best performing individual months with avg returns of 24% and 58%. Does seasonality matter? Let’s see.”
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